The Road Ahead
5 things to expect from the new Congress
The Nov. 5 election wasn’t a Republican landslide — claims of conservative pundits notwithstanding — but with the Senate and House so closely divided, it didn’t need to be.
Even so, Bush won’t get everything he wants. The main reason is Senate rules enable 41 Senators to, in effect, block legislation by a filibuster. What’s more, the White House can’t afford to alienate the Senate’s few moderate Republicans, like Rhode Island’s Lincoln Chaffee.
But make no mistake, Bush is in charge of the agenda, and his men, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, and House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., will call the shots on what legislation comes to a vote — and when.
Here’s what to expect from the new Congress:
- With Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, back in charge of the Judiciary Committee, look for quick action on Bush’s judicial nominees. Democrats could still block confirmation with a filibuster, but that’s a high-risk strategy Dems will likely reserve for Supreme Court nominees; the White House expects one or two justices to retire as early as next summer. Bottom line: Whether or not Bush wins re-election in 2004, federal courts will be more conservative for years to come.
- Bush’s insistence on denying basic union rights and civil service protections to employees of the new Department of Homeland Security starts a sustained attack on workers and their unions. Look for Republicans to take another run at weakening the 40-hour workweek and overtime protections with the “comp-time” and “bonus” bills, and to cut back the Family and Medical Leave Act. Also on the agenda: prohibiting card-check recognition in union organizing drives, imposing burdensome — and costly — new financial reporting requirements on unions, and passing “paycheck deception” legislation aimed at weakening union members’ voices in politics.
- Bush’s top domestic priority is making his $1.35 trillion tax cut package — scheduled to expire in 2011 — permanent. That’s good news for the top 1 percent of taxpayers; they get 40 percent of the tax breaks under Bush’s plan. Democrats blame the cuts for soaring budget deficits, and say they’ll fight Bush on making the cuts permanent. Democrats and Republicans agree that some sort of tax cuts are needed to stimulate the sagging economy, but sharply disagree on details. Expect the GOP to push for tax cuts for corporations and investors, while Dems press for tax relief targeted to middle- and lower-income working families.
- Both parties promise to help senior citizens with prescription drugs, but their plans differ dramatically. Republicans favor a plan backed by the pharmaceutical industry to give seniors a subsidy to help buy prescription drug coverage from insurance companies. Democrats say that plan would still leave seniors with thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket expenses — and open the door to privatizing Medicare. The Democrats’ approach: Provide prescription drug coverage under Medicare and pressure drug companies to control costs.
- Bush still wants to partially privatize Social Security by letting workers invest part of their payroll taxes in “personal savings accounts.” Democrats hate the idea, arguing that Social Security benefits would have to be slashed and the retirement age raised to pay for Bush’s plan. Most Republican candidates backed away from Bush’s plan in the campaign, but a handful — including Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina — embraced it and won. Now some GOP strategists say the idea has strong appeal to younger voters — but is that enough for Bush to risk a bruising fight with Democrats?
